MVP – a Mighty Vexing Proposition

@BreakTheHuddle

Excerpt:

“In the interest of full disclosure (and before I lose my Minnesota-centric audience) let me insist that I’m doing my best to speak as an unbiased observer, and not merely a (spiteful) Packer fan. If you stick around, you’ll find I am just as critical of the award Rodgers won in 2011 as I am of the Peterson/Manning dual candidacy of 2012. The fact that Rodgers isn’t even in the discussion as a viable candidate says a lot about how sportswriters and other prominent NFL pundits think, and trying to peel back the layers can teach us a thing or two about the problems with the process.”

Link to full article:

http://breakthehuddle.com/?p=1648

Hateful Respect

A Packer fan comes to terms with the sublime brilliance of Adrian Peterson

@BreakTheHuddle

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“What you did was very spiteful, but it was also very brave and very honest and I respect you for doing that. But the content of what you said has made me hate you. So there’s a layer of respect, admittedly, for your truthfulness, but it’s peppered with hate. Hateful respect.” – Aldous Snow (Russell Brand), ‘Get Him to the Greek’

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Adrian Peterson used the jumbotron at Lambeau Field to see if any Packers were closing in at the end of his 82 yard touchdown scamper on December 2nd. Even if they had been, it probably wouldn’t have mattered.

As much as it pains me to admit it – I love watching Adrian Peterson play football. I don’t particularly enjoy when he plays against the Green Bay Packers, and it’s not as though I want the Vikings to win, but when he carries the ball, the sport feels different. A methodical game of ebbs and flows receives a jolt of electricity, everything else stops, and unbridled athletic skill, made manifest in ferocious determination and desire, is embodied in number 28 in the purple helmet.

When the blocks are lined up, and Peterson hits a hole in stride, there’s a sound that happens in a crowded room of people watching the game. If it’s a group of Vikings fans, there’s excited chatter, followed by shouts, followed by the usual pleas and unnecessary reminders (“GO! RUN! GO!”). If it’s a group of opposing fans, there’s a noise not unlike that of air being let out of a balloon, a gasp, a collective muttering of “fuuuuuuuuuuu…” under the breath. Heck, even when he doesn’t get blocks – even when he’s wrapped up, and he’s going down, he never seems down. It’s possible he’ll toss a grown man aside like a plaything and keep chugging along. Or if it’s late in a game, and you need to stop him on a third down – and you stand him up at the line of scrimmage – there he is, again, somehow forcing his way through, diving across the “unofficial” yellow first down line.

Even if you’re a Packer fan who loathes everything about the Minnesota Vikings –their dumpy stadium, the obnoxious color scheme and fight song, their woefully irrational radio play-by-play announcer, as well as that infernal horn that sounds after each first down – you ought to learn to appreciate Adrian Peterson. Other than possessing a lead foot[i] and occasionally being tardy[ii], the guy’s done nothing to incur your wrath. By all accounts, he’s humble, kind and the hardest working man in football.

Paul Allen: The Unofficial Spokesman for Cheesehead Schadenfreude since 2000.

Now he’s on a historical run, a quest to break the NFL’s all-time record for rushing yards in a single season. Considering the fact that he began the season at less than 100%, and that his workload was reduced in weeks one through six, this might be the most remarkable individual feat in NFL history. After all, he eclipsed the century mark in rushing just once in the Vikings’ first six contests, and according to Vikings beat writer Tom Pelissero, was unable to make lateral cuts as recently as October 7th.[iii]

My appreciation for Peterson is not a symptom of Stockholm Syndrome, nor is it a sign that I’m slowly losing my love for the green and gold. I’ll argue with anyone who says Peterson’s the best ever (more on that in a minute) and I still take great delight in Viking maladies… especially watching Christian Ponder play quarterback. Since I moved to Minnesota, I’ve been immersed in the cult of AP, but I haven’t participated – merely observed, and appreciated the talent. Nothing more.

Part of this appreciation comes from the random, historical nuggets that can be uncovered when discussing Peterson’s recent 8-game run of dominance. To wit: in 1998, Hall-of-Famer Curtis Martin of the New York Jets rushed for 1,287 yards on 369 carries and scored 8 touchdowns, all over a full 16 game season. In his past 8 games, Peterson has rushed for more yards (1,313) and scored more touchdowns (9) on FEWER THAN HALF AS MANY RUSHING ATTEMPTS (176).

He has exactly as many yards in his past 8 games as Arian Foster has gained on the entire season. His average of 129.4 yards per game is the sixth best single season mark of all time – and all of the top five players in that category (O.J. Simpson, Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson and O.J. Simpson, again) completed their feats before Adrian was born in 1985. Even if his pace “slows back down” to his season average, he’ll still break the record; if he continues at his recent clip, he’ll obliterate it.

His production has him in the hunt for several awards. I don’t know if the ‘Comeback Player of the Year’ award can be split between two players, like the MVP award can, but it should be given equally to Peterson and Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning. I can’t pick between the two. If they want, the NFL can go ahead and skip the award next year to compensate – shoot, they can just cancel it after this. One of the five greatest quarterbacks of all time, as well as the best running back in the NFL, returned from potentially career-threatening injuries in the same season. Nothing as impressive as that will ever happen again.

As for the MVP… that’s an entire column unto itself, and in the coming weeks, you’ll get plenty of chatter about that from folks who are far smarter and more passionate about it than I am. Suffice it to say, he’s in the mix – an impressive feat for any running back in today’s pass-happy NFL.

There’s also chatter that this season is proof that Peterson is the best halfback to ever play the game. Before I comment, here’s a chart of the other running backs in AP’s stratosphere, with production through their first six seasons, to show you how they compare with the Vikings’ star:

Rushing	G	Att	Yds	Avg	Td	Yds/G
Eric Dickerson	90	2136	9915	4.6	75	110.2
Jim Brown[iv]	90	1790	9322	5.2	82	103.6
LaDainian Tomlinson	95	2050	9176	4.5	100	96.6
Emmitt Smith	93	2007	8956	4.5	96	96.3
Barry Sanders	89	1763	8672	4.9	62	97.4
Adrian Peterson	87	1695	8564	5.1	75	98.4
Walter Payton	89	1865	8386	4.5	65	94.2

The gentlemen listed above are, in some order, the greatest running backs in NFL history.[v] Peterson will add to his total yardage in this season’s final two games, surpassing Barry Sanders (whose overall numbers are remarkably similar). He’s also second in yards per carry and third in yards per game. A common argument derived from these factors goes like this: “Peterson’s playing in the wrong era – he’s a dominant back at a time when passing is more prevalent than ever. If he had been around two decades, or even one decade earlier, his numbers would look like Eric Dickerson’s.”

There are two problems with this line of thinking – first of all, rushing statistics haven’t dipped significantly in recent seasons. In fact, they’ve been stagnant ever since 1990, when Barry Sanders was in his second season and Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson had yet to wear an NFL uniform. Teams are not running the ball less often than they did before – though the ratio of runs to passes has certainly shifted in favor of the aerial attack.[vi]

So the same number of rushing attempts are available to running backs… but nowadays, of course, multiple backs from each team get the carries. This makes the evaluation of Peterson tricky – while he’s the closest thing we have to an “old-school” bell cow, he’s kept fresher by the newfangled strategy of “running back by committee.” That’s the second issue with the argument that AP is the best ever – he was kept fresh by his backups. We can’t merely extrapolate his numbers and assume he’d have reached 10,000 yards on 2,000 carries. It doesn’t work like that.

And while it’s superficially stunning to consider how good Peterson’s been despite the futility of Minnesota’s passing attack, in historical terms, it’s hardly unique. It’s important to note that O.J. Simpson, especially, was stuck with putrid signal callers for much of his career. In Simpson’s all-time best 1973 campaign, Buffalo’s run-to-pass ratio was 605-to-213. You think defenses didn’t know that number 32 was going to get the ball?

A more modern example, LaDainian Tomlinson, had the following quarterbacks at the start of his career: Washed Up Doug Flutie, Drew Brees Before He Was Really Drew Brees, Ancient Doug Flutie, Almost the Great Drew Brees, and Rookie Philip Rivers. Sounds pretty comparable to Peterson’s list: Decent Tarvaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte For Some Reason, Vengeful Brett Favre, Post-Sexting Scandal Brett Favre, Fat Donovan McNabb, and Christian Steele-Ponder.

Speaking of Tomlinson, there’s also the problem of pass-catching for Adrian Peterson, shown in the following chart:

Receiving	Rec	Yds	Avg	Td
LaDainian Tomlinson	398	2900	7.3	11
Emmitt Smith	301	1951	6.5	4
Barry Sanders	210	1782	8.5	6
Walter Payton	202	1791	8.9	5
Jim Brown	192	1831	9.5	14
Adrian Peterson	175	1520	8.7	3
Eric Dickerson	172	1422	8.3	3

Some don’t like including receiving statistics in the evaluation of running backs – but it’s an integral part of playing the position. In this respect, Peterson’s output is pedestrian, especially in comparison with Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson.

I’m not ready to stand on the table and say, definitively, that I know who the best running back of all-time is. What I do know is this – it’s not Adrian Peterson, and there’s no shame in that. Tomlinson, Simpson, Brown and (maybe) Eric Dickerson are ahead of him. At least, that’s what the numbers say to me.

At the same time, I realize that football isn’t played in statistical models or football-reference websites. The point of sports is to watch the games, to get excited, to appreciate the subtleties and debate about intangibles. I am too young to remember Simpson or Dickerson, and Brown played before most of the games were even caught on film. LaDainian Tomlinson never scared me the way Adrian Peterson scares me. The numbers might say he was better – I’m afraid my eyeballs tell another story.

The tug-of-war between the objective and subjective forces in our brains is part of what makes discussing and writing about sports so much fun. We (usually) get the fun payoff of debating without devolving into the partisan bickering that any political discussion inevitably descends into. Black and white facts stack up against full-color replays, and we’re left to sort through it all. Do you think Peterson’s the best of all time? Well, he scares the BeJesus out of me, so I guess I see your point.

I guess there’s no harm in saying he “could” be. His career isn’t finished, yet. He could be like Earl Campbell and simply wither away at 29, beaten and bruised and used. Or he could be Emmitt Smith, productive and remarkably healthy until he’s in his late 30s. The debate will rage for years to come, and he’ll be a source of pride for Minnesotans, and a source of envy for those of us who love the Green and Gold.

How should Packer fans handle it? It’s not like the Vikings are a threat to Green Bay’s standard for success – Lombardi Trophies. A team whose best player is a running back can’t win the Super Bowl anyway; what harm is there in letting our poor, snakebitten rivals to the west have a little fun now and again?

Hopefully, Packer and Viking fans both found something they loved and loathed about what I’ve said, here. It’s possible to feel both at the same time, you know.

Hateful respect.*

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below

*One more thing. Every nice thing I said about Adrian Peterson is hereby null and void if his urine or blood is ever found to be dirty in the teeniest, tiniest sense. I might appear to be a rational fan, full of respect for a truly wonderful player on my favorite team’s arch rival, but if he’s on horse steroids or HGH I will unload self-righteous hell on every purple-wearing Minnesotan dumb enough to come within earshot. Not that I think he’s using, or anything…

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[i] http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/16/adrian-peterson-gets-another-speeding-ticket/

[ii] http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Adrian_Peterson_arrives_late_mars_another_big_day_with_big_turnover112512

[iii]http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Christian_Ponders_knee_OK_but_Adrian_Petersons_ankle_still_an_issue101012

[iv] This is actually Jim Brown’s first seven seasons – since they played only 14 games per year back then, it helps the math work out a little better.

[v] O.J. Simpson didn’t fit neatly into the chart because he had an odd career; he followed three seasons as a backup with six transcendent years (which included 1973, the greatest season by a running back, ever) and finished his career with three injury-riddled years. His “apex” numbers would’ve slotted him just ahead of Barry Sanders – 87 games, 1800 rushes, 8849 yards, 4.9 yards per attempt, and 46 touchdowns on 101.6 yards per game. He also had the best statistical season of all-time by a running back, in 1973.

[vi] It’s worth mentioning two other small points – first, the average gain per rushing attempt is at an all-time high this season, and second, this rushing success likely has something to do with the fact that contact practices are limited, and tackling technique has gone the way of the dodo bird. I wanted to include this in the article, but it seemed too “hater-ific” and I chickened out. Oh, well. It made it into a footnote.

Black and Blue Snooze

Examining the problems with Thursday Night Football

@BreakTheHuddle

Naturally, the week I plan on writing about how lousy the Thursday Night games are, the Thursday Night game is a good one (Falcons – Saints).

On November 30^th, 2006, Cincinnati hosted Baltimore in the rebooted version of ‘Thursday Night Football.’ It was a rather ignominious start – the Bengals emerged victorious from the 13-7 clunker, a rather dull affair that featured 29 total first downs and a 6-0 halftime score. But the new reality was born. The NFL’s quest to dominate every free evening of the week had begun.

Contrary to popular belief, the NFL did not concoct the new scheduling wrinkle out of nowhere; the league has a long history of non-Thanksgiving Thursday games. From 1978-86, at least one game was played on Thursday, and in many seasons upwards of three took place. It was retired from 1987-89 but returned in 1991, with one game in Week 7 and a second one the week after Thanksgiving (most seasons).

In 2002, the NFL did away with the Thursday games save for the season opener (and Thanksgiving contests in Dallas and Detroit, of course). A year later, NFL Network was born, a cable channel owned, operated and managed by the 32 NFL ownership groups. It was a matter of time before it began broadcasting regular season games, the crème de la crème of sports programming.  In 2006, that’s precisely what happened.

Since then, games on Thursday night have increased from four (’06 and ’07) to six (’08 through ’11) to where it stands in 2012, with thirteen Thursday night games (weeks two through fifteen, with only the Thanksgiving games exempted). The league was obviously hoping to expand its brand into a new, dynamic, prime-time slot. Instead, what it’s gotten are gripes from fantasy owners, troubled with making lineup changes mid-week, pick-em league operators, forgetful of the new “early” deadline, and those without NFL Network on their cable or satellite package.

In other words, it’s been a difficult first season for the expanded lineup of Thursday Night Football. The previous trial runs (2006 through 2011) were neither lauded nor lamented; this year, however, dissonant voices are speaking up. Radio host Dan Patrick, who’s been the Lombardi Trophy presenter at the Super Bowl in recent years, spoke out in favor of getting rid of the Thursday night games altogether. Browns linebacker Scott Fujita, heavily involved with the issue of player safety for the Players’ Union, was also sharply critical of the expanded Thursday Night Football schedule, saying this:

Fujita

“I think the Thursday night game is one of the worst things you can do for a player’s body. For people who have never played football, I don’t know if they realize how tough it is to come back with three days in between games.”

Anecdotal evidence doesn’t make a solid argument, but here’s some more, just for the heck of it: the past few Thursday night games (Dolphins/Bills, Colts/Jaguars, Chargers/Chiefs) have been duds. Do the statistics bear out the premise that Thursday Night Football has been of a lower quality than the rest of the games? If so, what does this mean for the possibility of NFL scheduling creeping further and further into the work week?

The Numbers

Since the new Thursday Night scheduling system was put into place in 2006, there have been 42 true ‘Thursday Night Football’ games played. This, of course, discounts the season-opening game and the Thanksgiving contests. I made it my goal to find out if the Thursday games were of “lower quality” than the average NFL game.

When I think of a “low quality” game, I think of three things: penalties, turnovers, and garbage time – that is, sloppy play, mistakes, and blowouts. As far as high scoring games, it’s a give-and-take proposition. Some shootouts feel dull, some low-scoring games are exciting – but generally speaking, offense attracts viewers and excites fans. Given the rule changes in the NFL in recent seasons, somebody in the league office agrees with that premise.

First, let’s examine the following chart, which explores penalties and turnovers in Thursday Night games, compared with the league averages in those categories.

 

	Penalties / Gm		Turnovers/ Gm
Year	TNF	All Games	TNF	All Games
2009	11	11.8	2.5	3.4
2010	10.5	12.1	2.3	3.4
2011	12.2	12.8	3.7	3.2
2012	12.2	12.7	3.7	3.2

 

Oddly enough, participants in Thursday night contests have been flagged less often than they are on Sundays – and some years, it’s by a pretty significant margin. In 2010, for instance, there were one and a half fewer yellow flags per game on Thursdays. Without devoting time, energy and intelligence that I don’t possess to figuring out why, I can’t even begin to explain the reasons for fewer flags.

Studying the turnover differential is equally perplexing. In 2009 and 2010, there was an average of one fewer turnover per game. Now, there is half a turnover more. I hate chalking things up to pure coincidence- especially when this much research is involved – but in terms of turnovers and penalties, the Thursday night games are no more or less sloppy than Sunday or Monday night contests.

The scoring figures tell a different story, though.

 

Year	NFL AVG PPG	TNF PPG	Difference
2009	43	38.8	-4.2
2010	44	41.7	-2.3
2011	44.4	37.2	-7.2
2012	46	37	-9

While the margins of victory don’t change much between regular weekend games and Thursday night games (fact: the average margin of victory in the NFL is approximately 12 points) the total points themselves drop significantly. This is probably because coaches barely have time to concoct new schemes or game plans, much less implement them, during a three day work week. Teams with young quarterbacks are really at a disadvantage – and as of now, more than a third of the league is starting rookies or second-year players under center. Veterans can add new wrinkles on the fly, while young guys have to stick with what they know; they are predictable, easier to stop, and thus, offense suffers.

 

What does it mean?

One prevailing theory is that the NFL would like to sell the rights to Thursday night games to a TV partner – if that’s the case, they certainly aren’t doing a very good job of showcasing themselves. The league currently draws more than $3 Billion annually from the TV networks (NBC, CBS, Fox) for the privilege of broadcasting games. Even if the Thursday night games are inferior to the rest, demand is so high that the Thursday night slate would certainly fetch upwards of $700 – $800 million on the open market.

If the NFL does not want to sell off the broadcasting rights, and instead wishes to keep the telecasts in-house on its own network, then why not get itself a better product? One idea is to have an 18 week season, with 16 games, and two bye weeks interspersed throughout. Currently, every team in the NFL is required to get at least one game in “prime-time” per season, an unusually egalitarian move for a league as profit-driven as the NFL obviously is (see: player lockout, 2011; see also: referee lockout, 2012). The Thursday night games could then be effectively managed so they come after a bye week – ten days off before a Thursday night performance, nine days off after.

Would there be a bit of a lag between games? Sure. But if the NFL is actually serious about player safety – and the jury is still out as to whether or not they are – this would go a long way towards helping matters. Perhaps the end game for the NFL is to have football on Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday every week. That setup would be great for single guys, terrible for marriages, and make a lot of television money for the league.

The only problem is, under the current conditions, it’d be very difficult to make it work. Four years of evidence suggests offense is down in the Thursday games, and offense is what makes the league popular… and to be honest, Thursday Night Football just doesn’t pass the ‘eye test.’ Everyone looks tired, underprepared, and the road team is at a great disadvantage. A subjective argument such as that one is tepidly employed by yours truly, as I generally like to back my claims with research, but I believe it’s completely valid.

That said, while the games aren’t quite as good, it’s still the NFL, and the NFL is king. Expansion, heightened television exposure, game on more nights during the week – all of it’s on the table, and the reality is, all of it will be in demand. The popularity of the NFL knows no bounds.

 

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below!

2010 All Over Again?

Superficially, it feels a lot like two years ago for the Green and Gold – but is it?

@BreakTheHuddle

February 6, 2011, was the day the Green Bay Packers capped off their terrific 2010-11 NFL season by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. Beset by injuries, the resilient squad went on a remarkable six week run, spanning the final two weeks of the regular season (at home) and four playoff games (all on the road) en route to the franchise’s fourth Lombardi Trophy. It was a magical, unexpected and thrilling march to a championship, made all the more incredible in light of the maladies the Packers had to overcome to get there.

Injuries, inconsistency and a brutal schedule down the stretch couldn’t stop Mike McCarthy’s bunch. Sound familiar? For some Packer fans, the similarities between the current Packer incarnation and the World Champion 2010 version are uncanny, unmistakable and even cause for optimism. But so much has changed in 21 months – gas back then was $3.17 per gallon. Now? It’s all the way up to $3.22! Milk was $0.13 cheaper in those halcyon days – and technology misappropriated for sexual purposes was felling quarterbacks rather than four-star generals.

All kidding (and veiled references to Brett Favre’s sexting scandal) aside, the similarities between the fortunes, and play, of the 2010 Packers to the 2012 team are superficial and misleading. The schedule, the offensive line, and the injury issues all appear familiar, but a closer examination reveals the truth – what we are watching in 2012 is very different than two years ago. In some ways better, in some ways worse – but certainly not the same.

The Schedule

Superficial similarities:

YEAR	Record	Win Streak	Point differential	OPP 1-9total win%	OPP 10-16 total win%
2010	6-3	3	+78	.465	.589
2012	6-3	4	+52	.549	.552

By this chart, things seem pretty similar – this year looks even more impressive, considering the Packers played a much more difficult schedule in the early part of the season than the 2010 team did. The only teams the Packers have lost to this year – the Colts, 49ers and Seahawks – are possible playoff teams. In 2010, Green Bay dropped games to Washington (on the road) Miami (at home), two postseason nonfactors. So don’t the similar results against stiffer competition bode well for the green and gold?

The reality:

Wins over the Texans (on the road) and the Bears (at home) stand out, but the 2012 schedule is much tougher than 2010. Why? Chicago is only divisional foe the Packers have faced, and the rest of the division is much better than they were in 2010. That season, Green Bay went 4-2 in the NFC North – aided by a bad Vikings team and the scuffling Detroit Lions.

This season, Detroit (though still flawed) is much better than they were two seasons ago. Minnesota is a matchup issue for the Packers and possesses offensive weapons that keep them in any game. Chicago still gets to host Green Bay in the Windy City. It’s not a division of cupcakes in 2012 – rather, the NFC North might be the best division in football. It’ll be a slugfest to the end.

If ten wins is the benchmark to reach for a postseason berth, head-to-head victories mean everything, as several teams (the Seahawks, Buccaneers, Vikings, Packers, maybe even the Saints and Cowboys) have a shot at getting to double digit victories. While the Packers lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Seahawks (a nightmare scenario, should it play out that way), they control their own destiny with the Saints. The other teams (who don’t face Green Bay)- the Buccaneers (4),  and Cowboys (4) –  already have more intra-conference losses than the Pack do.

All that leaves us with is this reality: the ‘Border Battle’ games with the Vikings will be bigger than they have been the past couple of years. It’s always a rivalry game, sure – but this year, postseason berths will be on the line – and this Vikings team is proud, motivated, and talented. Ditto for the Lions – except their coaching is far inferior – and the Bears’ only losses in 2012 have come to the best team in the AFC (the Houston Texans) and, of course, on the road in Lambeau Field.

 

He hasn’t exactly been a Pro Bowler, but Bulaga’s consistency on the right side of the line will be missed.

The Offensive Line

Superficial similarities:

The core of the offensive line remains the same – the two guards, Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, and tackle Bryan Bulaga. Add veteran center Jeff Saturday, and progressing youngster Marshall Newhouse rather than the aging Chad Clifton, and this line should be about the same as the one two seasons ago… right?

The reality:

Jeff Saturday, brought in due in large part because of his deft ability to communicate in pass protection, has been abysmal in run blocking – at any rate, he’s been a downgrade from Scott Wells, who departed in free agency. Clifton held on as long as he could, and should go down as one of the most underappreciated Packers of the past decade. His replacement at left tackle, Marshall Newhouse, has been beaten on numerous occasions. Green Bay allows more than 3 sacks per game, a much higher rate than either of the past two seasons.

Sitton and Lang are their usual, reliable, selves – but an injury to Bryan Bulaga, quietly placed on IR this week due to a non-contact injury suffered in the Packers’ victory over the Cardinals, shifts Lang to right tackle and promotes Evan Dietrich-Smith from the bench to left guard. Such shuffling was commonplace on the 2009 offensive front – and results were disastrous, as Aaron Rodgers was sacked a league-leading 50 times that year. Keeping Rodgers healthy the rest of the season is a tall order for a left side of the line as inexperienced as Newhouse and Dietrich-Smith. Speaking of health…

 

All the Injuries

Superficial similarities:

Year	# Players on I.R.	Starters on I.R.	# Players on PUP list
2010	14	7	3
2012	8	4	3

Suffering a rash of cataclysmic injuries, the 2010 Packers, thanks to their organizational depth and savvy moves by General Manager Ted Thompson, stayed afloat. In 2012, pretty much the same thing has happened, right?

The reality:

The six most important people on the 2010 team were, in no particular order, Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Nick Collins, and Charles Woodson. They missed a total of 2 games that season. Combined.

The six most important people on the 2012 team are, in no particular order, Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. They have missed a total of 12 games already – only Rodgers and Matthews have been active for every game this season, and after Sunday, it’ll be just #12 (Matthews is likely to miss the game with a hamstring injury).

While nearly a third of the starters from the 2010 team were lost for the year, the core six were very durable, as was the offensive line. This season, there are injuries to the team’s blue-chippers, and the young players normally expected to fill their shoes (Derek Sherrod, Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy) are also dinged up.

The depth of the team, particularly at receiver, is notable, but eventually injuries to the stars and the guys in charge of keeping Rodgers clean will catch up to Green Bay. While there are plenty of injuries, yes, these are different – in 2012, game-changers have been missing time, rather than placeholders.

Superficially…

The Packers will rely on their depth and coaching savvy, not to mention the arm (and feet) of Aaron Rodgers, to a playoff berth, where anything can happen. This is the optimist’s outlook as Week 11 approaches.

In reality…

Important people are hurt. The offensive line is in disarray – one more injury, and the team will be forced to use guys who were undrafted free agents this year (Andrew Datko and Don Barclay). The division is tougher, and five divisional games remain. I’m not saying the Packers won’t make it to the postseason; what I am saying, is, they’ve got a tougher road than many people think. They can’t afford any more injuries, especially on the offensive front. Realists have a grip on the obstacles in front of this team.

One thing both sides can agree on – all that’s important is making it to the postseason, because once it starts, anything can happen. That’s where optimism and realism collides.

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below!

Pinpoint Inaccuracies

Comparing four young signal-callers and dispelling the nonsense surrounding each

@BreakTheHuddle

Shaun King of the Buccaneers was the first rookie quarterback to win a playoff game. Now go, impress your friends with what you’ve learned here today! But read the rest of the article first.

Despite the fact that the National Football League is extremely complex, certain buzzwords and sentiments become en vogue and are repeated, endlessly, whether they are true or not. Groupthink begins to take over, churning cycles full of clichés, stereotypes and misleading information into public opinion.

Nowhere is this clearer than the evaluation of young quarterbacks. As a product of the early success of Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Andrew Luck, much is immediately expected from the young men playing the most difficult position in sports. One is either a “bum” or a “budding superstar”, depending upon how their last drive ended. The backup quarterback is still a popular man in some NFL cities, despite the fact that few teams are actually making bad long-term decisions at that position.

Nearly one-thirds of the league was using a first-or-second year quarterback as its starter when the 2012 season opened; more than half (17) of the league’s starters have four seasons of experience or fewer. Teams no longer spend time on journeymen veterans, leaving their youngsters holding a clipboard on the sideline; everyone wants to know what they have, and right now.

Comparing quarterbacks can be a tricky endeavor. Even basic statistics can be a bit misleading, and the situation on every team is different. What skill position players does a QB have to work with? How about his offensive line? What schedule has he played, easy defenses, or a lot of tough ones? Yet pundits and casual fans alike love to debate who they like more, Eli or Peyton, Rodgers or Brady, Cutler or Stafford, rarely taking the whole picture into view. Quarterbacks never face one another, head to head, in a vacuum, a la Lebron James and Kobe Bryant on a basketball court. But we persist in cross-referencing one quarterback’s numbers and style with others.

Some comparisons are made because of race, and aren’t necessarily valid (Cam Newton – Robert Griffin III), some are made smartly, because of body size and arm strength (Josh Freeman – Ben Roethlisberger) and some are flat-out hilarious (Tim Tebow throwing left handed – Peyton Manning throwing left-handed). But often it’s the comparison you wouldn’t necessarily consider that can be the most informative.

What follows are two sets of comparisons – and a few conclusions, cautiously drawn from (attempting to) dissect each quarterback’s play from all angles.

COMPARISON ONE:

Quarterback A, 2011-2012: 19 starts, 340/575, 59.1%, 3,659 yards, 23 touchdowns, 21 interceptions

Quarterback B, 2011-2012: 18 starts, 344/606, 56.8%, 3,961 yards, 14 touchdowns, 13 interceptions

The first guy is clearly better, right?

Quarterback A, 2011-12: 6.4 yards per attempt, 10.8 yards per completion, 76.0 passer rating, 2011 QBR: 33.73, 2012 QBR: 46.84.

Quarterback B, 2011-12: 6.5 yards per attempt, 11.5 yards per completion, 75.4 passer rating, 2011 QBR: 28.58, 2012 QBR: 46.15.

Well, maybe they’re more similar than we thought…

Quarterback A’s offensive line: 18^th rated for the run, 32^nd for the pass in 2011, 5^th and 26^th (respectively) in 2012. In 19 career starts, he’s had 8 different linemen blocking for him amid 5 different line configurations. This season, his line has been intact for all nine of his games.

Quarterback B’s offensive line: 30^th rated for the run, 28^th for the pass in 2011, 16^th and 27^th (respectively) in 2012. In 18 starts over the past two seasons, 17 different offensive linemen have started a game, amid 10 line configurations. This season, he averages about one new lineman per week.

Are you starting to wonder if QB-B even gets to learn his offensive lineman’s names before a new one comes along?

Quarterback A: 2011 opponents ranked an average of 19.0 on Football Outsiders’ defensive ratings.[i] 2012 opponents, to this point, are at 17.6 – meaning he faces below average defenses on a week-to-week basis.

Quarterback B: 2011 opponents ranked an average of 15.2… and so far this year, the figure is 11.0, meaning he faces above average defenses regularly.

Any guesses as to who they might be?

Quarterback A is Christian Ponder.

Quarterback B is Sam Bradford.

Ponder’s “traditional” statistics are much better than Bradford’s – he has more touchdowns, a higher completion percentage, a better record (7-12 career, whereas Bradford is 4-14 the past two seasons) and more rushing yards (346-87).

But when you factor in all of Ponder’s ancillary advantages – a better (though still mediocre) offensive line, one of the best running backs in football (Adrian Peterson), a dynamic receiver (Percy Harvin) and a toolsy, pass-catching tight end (Kyle Rudolph), he should have much better production than Bradford. The Rams quarterback has been going to battle with the aging Steven Jackson in the backfield, the enigmatic drop machine Lance Kendricks at tight end and a collection of nobodies (save the oft-injured Danny Amendola) at wideout. Bradford’s had three offensive coordinators in his three seasons; Ponder has had one in his two years as the Vikings signal-caller.

The party line coming out of Minnesota this week is that fans need to remain patient with Christian Ponder – that he doesn’t have much to work with. It’s too early to tell if either quarterback is a bust – but Ponder apologists are on shakier ground than they think. Sam Bradford would love to have the toys, and the healthy offensive line, that Ponder gets to play with. It’s fair to say Christian Ponder has been a major disappointment in his second season – and unless he’s playing through an underreported injury, it’s fair to say that he shoulders much of the blame for what’s holding the Vikings back.

Bradford, on the other hand, is beginning to hear it from critics, questioning why he’s being outplayed within his own division by a rookie (Russell Wilson) and a much-maligned quarterback who was once left for dead (Alex Smith). Patience is, perhaps, beginning to run out on Bradford – which is a shame. He’s been dealt a difficult hand – is he the current incarnation of Jason Campbell, a talented guy with terrible luck (coordinators, injuries, etc)? Time will tell if he goes the way of Campbell, who now toils on the Bears’ bench.

The ruling: Ponder deserves more blame, Bradford deserves more time.

Ponder is currently in a relationship with ESPN’s Samantha Steele. He might be a mediocre player on the field, but off of it, he’s on fire!

 

COMPARISON TWO:

Quarterback C, 2012: 8 starts, 182/285, 63.9%, 2,130 yards, 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions

Quarterback D, 2012: 9 starts, 145/234, 62.0%, 1,639 yards, 13 touchdowns, 8 interceptions

They appear to be a lot alike…

Quarterback C, 2012: 7.5 yards per attempt, 11.7 yards per completion, 86.7 passer rating, QBR: 50.71

Quarterback D, 2012: 7.0 yards per attempt, 11.3 yards per completion, 87.0 passer rating, QBR: 56.85

It’s possible they’re the same person…

Quarterback C: Not drafted in the first round, but immediately started for his team.

Quarterback D: Not drafted in the first round, but immediately started for his team.

Well, that’s just anecdotal evidence, right?

Quarterback C, career (24 games): 60.2% completions, 34 TDs, 24 INTs, 12-12 record.

Quarterback D, career (projected through 24 games): 62.0% completions, 35 TDs, 21 INTs, 13-11 record.

Is it getting creepy, yet?

Any guesses?

Quarterback C is everybody’s favorite ginger, Andy Dalton.

Quarterback D is everybody’s favorite “guy who’s too short to play quarterback”, Russell Wilson.

Physical differences aside, these two have remarkably similar stories, though I have yet to read a comparison between the two from one of the national football writers. They must be too busy comparing Cam Newton to Vince Young[ii] or Phillip Rivers to Dan Marino[iii] or something. Abandon the racial element, gentlemen! Dalton slipped to the 2^nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft, behind fellow QBs Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder. If they could do it over, I’m sure the Panthers would stick with Newton, but the Titans, Jaguars and Vikings might make a different decision.

Dalton led the Cincinnati Bengals to a 9-7 record his rookie season, good enough to earn a playoff berth, the franchise’s 3^rd in the past 21 years. This season, despite an offensive line that struggles mightily in pass protection (25^th-rated unit by Football Outsiders) his completion percentage and yards per attempt both increased dramatically.

Wilson, listed at 5-11, 204 pounds, played minor league baseball in the Colorado Rockies organization and transferred schools when North Carolina State decided to part ways with him. He led Wisconsin to a Rose Bowl berth in 2011, leading the nation in passing efficiency, completing 73% of his passes, and sporting a 33-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio.

Despite his efforts, he slid all the way to the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft. Though he’s been a tad inconsistent at times, and has had rough stretches, he’s been occasionally transcendent – especially in a 293 yard, 3 TD game against New England and this past Sunday’s 173 yard, 3 TD game against Minnesota. He’s only faced one defense all season outside the top-17 of Football Outsiders’ defensive ranks – meaning his numbers are likely to improve as the schedule gets easier.

The book on both of them seems to be that they are “game managers” – ironic, as Dalton averages more yards per attempt than Drew Brees, and Wilson tops Matthew Stafford in that same category. The downfield accuracy of each will improve with time – and the development of each as franchise quarterbacks from overlooked beginnings is a story that should resonate with NFL fans across the league.

The ruling – give both of them a lot more credit, because they’re pretty good. Also, enough of the Andy Dalton “ginger” jokes… and stop selling Russell Wilson short… get it? Short? Ah, you get the point.

If I haven’t convinced you that these two are remarkably similar… well, you’re probably unable to see past skin color. It has nothing to do with my inability to clearly articulate an argument.

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below!

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[i] Football Outsiders is an amazing website that utilizes innovative statistics to evaluate and dissect the NFL. In other words, if you’re a football nerd, it’s the perfect site for you: http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2012

[ii] http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/don_banks/10/09/cam-newton/index.html

[iii] http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/jim_trotter/10/10/philip-rivers/index.html

 

Fantasy Football Facts, Figures and Folly

Sorting out who’s been dead weight, who’s been great, and who is available to help your team.

@BreakTheHuddle

I never thought I would allow myself to write about fantasy football on this site. There are plenty of bona fide reasons for this – in order:

1. It’s a terribly clichéd thing to do: “Amateur sportswriter thinks he knows everything about fantasy football!”
2. My teams are not that good.
3. My friends know my teams are not that good, and would give me crap for writing about fantasy football when I clearly don’t know much.
4. It doesn’t appeal to my target audience (sports fans who want to see something satirical, unique or off-the-cuff, and despise the same old “sports talk noise”).
5. It doesn’t appeal to my actual audience (mostly my relatives, none of whom play fantasy sports, or people who stumble to the site via random Google search, and are here exclusively for the pictures).

Good news is: I don’t take myself too seriously. I am not going to give you any fluff, nor will I B.S. you. I’ll give you facts, stats, a couple of light-hearted, good-natured tips, a few (hopefully) witty observations, and we’ll leave it at that. No pretentious demagoguery about who to pick up (though I will make some polite suggestions), who to trade for or who to start/ sit this week. Just a little bit of analysis and a whole lot of self-deprecation.

Quarterbacks:

The following list indicates the top scoring quarterbacks in terms of points per team game to this point in the season.

Rank	Name	Team	PPG
1	Drew Brees	New Orleans	24.6
2	Robert Griffin III	Washington	23.7
3	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay	23.1
4	Matt Ryan	Atlanta	20.8
5	Peyton Manning	Denver	20.2
6	Tom Brady	New England	19.9
7	Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh	18.8
8	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis	17.4
9	Cam Newton	Carolina	17.2
10	Eli Manning	New York Giants	17.0

The top of the list contains one guy who was expected to be either at the top or close to it at the beginning of the season – Drew Brees. He’s in the perfect situation for terrific fantasy numbers: talented supporting cast, a pass-happy offensive scheme, and a terrible defense that necessitates throwing the football for the length of the game each Sunday. In second is a surprise, Robert Griffin III, who is succeeding in fantasy because of his rushing numbers. He’s got 468 yards and 6 TDs on the ground – if he were a running back, those stats would be good for around 14^th in the league, ahead of Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden and Michael Turner. And third is Aaron Rodgers, who is up there because he is the best quarterback in football, as well as an awesome human being.

I never said this post would be 100% objective.

Dead weight

Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. Fantasy owners who waited during the draft and counted on one of those two to buoy the position for them wound up with the 24^th or 25^th (respectively) overall QB this season. Yet Romo, who averages 13 points per game, is owned in 96% of leagues and is started in 56% of them. Rivers is started in 30% of leagues, which is lower than Romo but still far too high considering the lack of production. To put this in perspective: Sam Bradford, whose receivers are as anonymous as internet trolls, is still averaging a point better, per game, than these two.

Who to get

Josh Freeman, who averages 17 points per game (I will do the math for you – that’s 4 points better than the Romo-Rivers conglomerate from Mediocrityville) is owned in 71% of leagues and started in just 15% of them. He’s the 11^th overall QB this season – certainly worthy of a roster spot, and probably worth a shot at a platoon, or at the very least a bye week spot start.

Running Backs:

Rank	Name	Team	PPG
1	Arian Foster	Houston	19.1
2	Ray Rice	Baltimore	15.3
3	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City	14.3
4	Alfred Morris	Washington	13.9
5	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota	13.8
6	C.J. Spiller	Buffalo	13.7
7	Frank Gore	San Francisco	13.3
8	Reggie Bush	Miami	12.6
9	Stevan Ridley	New England	12.3
10	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle	12.2

The top two players were two of the first four backs selected in most fantasy football drafts, so their appearance near the top is not shocking. Also unsurprising is the fact that the rest of the top-10 is full of surprises; the running back position is historically hard to project, and this season is no exception. The rest of the top ten is made up of two guys who made quick rebounds from injuries (Charles, Peterson), three who emerged from running-back-by-committee situations to be workhorse backs (Morris, Spiller, Ridley), two guys who refuse to get old (Gore, Bush) and the ugliest human being on the planet (Marshawn Lynch). Kudos to you if you saw any of that coming, and kudos to you if you’ve never seen a close-up of Marshawn Lynch.

WordPress wouldn’t even let me post a picture of Marshawn Lynch.

Dead Weight

The Carolina backfield. Both DeAngelo Williams (5.1 PPG) and Johnathon Stewart (4.2) are dismal, despite being 94% and 81% owned, respectively. Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton are there to vulture goal line carries on the rare occasion the sputtering Panther offense even gets that close, and each has dealt with nagging injuries. The two  had 13 points apiece in Week 2; only Williams (in Week 4) has cracked double digits other than that.

Who to get

To be honest, there isn’t a whole lot to choose from – running backs are thin, and even the whiff of a potential starting spot is enough to send everyone to the waiver wire in a tizzy. Pierre Thomas is already owned in 72% of leagues, but considering the fact that he averages nearly 7 PPG, and is a threat to both run and catch the ball, it should be a lot closer to 100%.

Wide Recievers:

Rank	Name	Team	PPG
1	A.J. Green	Cincinnati	15.2
2	Victor Cruz	New York Giants	15.0
3	Vincent Jackson	Tampa Bay	14.8
4	Brandon Marshall	Chicago	13.6
5	Marques Colston	New Orleans	13.3
6	Roddy White	Atlanta	13.2
7	Reggie Wayne	Indianapolis	12.8
8	Percy Harvin	Minnesota	12.7
9	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay	12.2
10	Wes Welker	New England	11.3

The first two wideouts taken in many drafts were Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson; it’s not all that surprising that Andre is outside the top-10, but it is shocking that Calvin, who has been healthy and active for all six of his team’s games, can’t find the end zone. Green’s jump from year one to year two has been extraordinary, as he’s third in the NFL in receiving yards (636) and tied for first in touchdowns (7). Vincent Jackson’s emergence as a fantasy stud is also a surprise – but the rest of the top ten is full of familiar names.

Dead weight

Justin Blackmon, who is owned in 51% of leagues, averages 2.4 points per game and has zero receiving touchdowns. Cecil Shorts, his Jacksonville teammate, averages 7.3 points per contest, has found the end zone three times this season and is owned in 3% of fantasy leagues. Neither is particularly own-able, but at least Shorts has shown something this season; Blackmon’s been a dud from the get-go. Sidney Rice is also a quandary I can’t figure out, netting 6.2 points per game, but still owned in 88% of leagues. Donnie Avery, by comparison, matches his output yet is owned in 13% of leagues.

Who to get

Avery and Shorts would be nice additions in deep leagues, but Andre Roberts, who is one of 20 receivers to average double digit fantasy points per week, is still only owned in 38% of leagues. This is ludicrous – his output thus far matches Dwayne Bowe’s and eclipses Larry Fitzgerald, Stevie Johnson, Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson and Steve Smith, just to name a few. Jeremy Kerley, of the fantasy black hole known as the New York Jets receiving corps, is surprisingly decent (3 weeks of double digit fantasy production, plus another week with 9 points) and available (owned in 45% of leagues).

 Tight Ends:

Rank	Name	Team	PPG
1	Tony Gonzalez	Atlanta	11.2
2	Rob Gronkowski	New England	10.2
3	Heath Miller	Pittsburgh	10.2
4	Owen Daniels	Houston	9.4
5	Vernon Davis	San Francisco	8.3
6	Kyle Rudolph	Minnesota	7.8
7	Jimmy Graham	New Orleans	7.2
8	Brent Celek	Philadelphia	7.0
9	Martellus Bennett	New York Giants	6.9
10	Scott Chandler	Buffalo	6.5

Once you get outside the top three, it’s a giant mess of mediocrity. Don’t get me wrong, Owen Daniels has been a nice surprise, rebounding from injury late last season, and Kyle Rudolph’s sophomore development is a sign of big things to come in the future, but it’s hard to know what’s what at tight end unless you’ve got Tony, Gronk or the Heath Bar.

Dead Weight

Jermichael Finley. What else is there to say? The Packers offense has tallied 100 points over the past three weeks. Jermichael’s contribution? 7 receptions, 54 yards. Total. He’s been a little dinged up, and in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve been avoiding putting the injured into the ‘dead weight’ category, preferring instead to point out the healthy, terrible players clogging rosters. While I understand why he’s owned in 88% of leagues (the Packers offense is one of the league’s best) I don’t think he’s ever going to break out. He’s nowhere near as washed up as Chad Ochocinco was a season ago, but the principle applies here: if you can’t get your numbers as part of a high-powered attack, what does that say about you? It says you’re not that good. Shoulder injury aside, Finley’s been bad this year. Period.

Who to get

Remember earlier? When I told you about Heath Miller, and I said he was the third overall tight end through seven weeks? Well, he is a free agent in 1 of 5 fantasy leagues. So do yourself a favor, and see if he’s out there, then remedy the situation. And if he’s on your bench, start him (only 50% of those who own him actually start the guy).

 Defense:

Rank	Team	PPG
1	Chicago	18.3
2	Houston	11.7
3	Arizona	10.1
4	Atlanta	9.8
5	Minnesota	9.7
6	Denver	9.2
7	San Francisco	9.1
8	Seattle	8.9
9	New England	8.3
10	New York Giants	8.1

 Dead Weight

Defenses are drafted based on reputation alone – but they shouldn’t be held onto so long if they are terrible. For some reason, the Pittsburgh defense, who averages 3.7 points per game (good for 24^th place) is owned in 93% of leagues and STARTED in nearly two-thirds of them.

Who to get

Miami (11^th overall, 7.5 points per game) is available in 87% of leagues. The play the Jets this week. The quarterback of the Jets is Mark Sanchez. Have I painted a clear enough picture for you?

Confession

I don’t really care about defenses that much – the only reason I brought any of that up is so I could write about the Bears Defense. Every league seems to score defenses differently, but in my three leagues, the Bears rank 8^th, 9^th, and 10^th… OVERALL. Yes. The Bears, in all their majesty, were apparently deserving of a first round pick, meaning the idiot in your league who took them rounds ahead of where they “should” have gone isn’t actually an idiot. He’s the smart one.

Remember how last season was the “year of the tight end”, with Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski shattering all sorts of records? In most leagues, in 2012, there are two defenses who have scored more points per game (Chicago, Houston) than the top-rated tight end (Tony Gonzalez). In 2011, there were six tight ends among the top 56 fantasy players; this season, there are zero.

It just goes to show you that fantasy football is fickle, fabulous folly, full of fortune, farce and frivolous foolery.  If the knucklehead who sat at your draft and defended his selection of a defense in the fifth round was right, then maybe everyone, even the guys who get paid to do this professionally, need to admit something: playing fantasy football is one part smarts, one part luck and one part theatre of the absurd.

Happy fantasy-ing (fantasizing?) everybody.

 

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below!

Appease the Football Gods

How the Packers can get back in the good graces of the pigskin pantheon

@BreakTheHuddle

It just seemed as though the Colts were destined to win Sunday’s game – and this miraculous catch by Reggie Wayne was one of the signs.

Last Sunday, before kickoff, I channeled my usual doom-and-gloom pessimism and made a-not-so-unique proclamation to my friend, Bernard. As the Packers took the field against the Indianapolis Colts, whose coach, Chuck Pagano, was diagnosed with leukemia during the previous week, I turned to Bernard and said:

“This feels like a bad karma game. Indy’s going to be playing for the coach. I have a bad feeling about this.”

Naturally, I (and every other Negative Nancy who said something similar) looked silly during the first half. Aaron Rodgers put on a clinic, the defense was stifling, and the Packers carried a 21-3 lead into the locker room with them, with the second half kick coming their way. Green Bay was finally showing glimpses of last season’s form – they were blowing out an inferior team, scoring at will, and controlling the tempo of the game.

The second half, as we all know, told a different story. Without Cedric Benson, who’d compiled 41 total yards through 17 minutes of game play before he was injured, the offense lost its rhythm. The defense, pesky and suffocating in the first 30 minutes, went soft, the pass rush totally ineffective the final 30. No one could cover Reggie Wayne. Andrew Luck showed his athleticism, breaking away from sacks and rushing for first downs. And no one could stop the momentum shift – Indianapolis outscored the Packers 27-6 in the second half, sealing the victory when Mason Crosby’s 52 yard field goal attempt sailed so far left that Michael Moore would’ve been proud of it.

Lame political jokes aside, the second half of the Colts game was a microcosm of the Packers’ 2012 season to this point. Though it’s possible the football gods punished me Sunday for my appalling lack of faith, I’d hazard to say there are other reasons for Green Bay’s struggles.

 

First of all, the Packers need call more running plays – a LOT more running plays.

Cedric Benson is carted off the field during Sunday’s loss; he’s out at least 8 weeks with a lisfranc injury.

If you watch the Packers closely, I’m not telling you anything you didn’t already know. In Sunday’s game, McCarthy called for 10 pass plays and 8 rushes before Benson left with an injury early in the second quarter. Afteward? A whopping 35-to-9. Despite the fact that Green Bay opened the second half with an 18 point lead, 13 of their first 16 offensive plays were called passes, one of which was intercepted, setting up the Colts for an easy score.

Adjusted for sacks and scrambles, the Packers have the fifth highest called pass-to-run ratio in the NFL, at 72%-to-28%. Nearly half the league (14 teams) pass the ball 60% of the time. But of those 14, only the Ravens (4.9 yards/carry) and the Giants (4.8) are more successful when they do run than the Packers, who average 4.3 yards per rush. Some of that figure is skewed by Rodgers, who is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, but still, Packer running backs average 4.2 yards per rush – not an elite figure, to be sure, but far from terrible. The run game certainly deserves more attention than Mike McCarthy has given it.

Because the team calls so many passing plays, the Packers are just 21^st in time of possession. It’s currently en vogue to eschew time of possession as a statistic. Many pundits now consider your number of plays to be the key factor – this, more than time of possession, is indicative of whether or not you are wearing out the opposing defense. In this department, the Packers are 14^th, at 64 offensive plays per game – about league average. What’s troubling is, despite the ability to hold onto the ball and run a lot of plays, the Packers are a paltry 24^th in yards-per-play, down there with teams such as Tennessee, Tampa Bay, the New York Jets, and the Cleveland Browns.

The love for the passing attack has gone unrewarded; once adjusted to include sacks, the Packers average 5.74 yards per pass attempt, good for 28^th in the league. Many stat sheets do not factor sacks into this equation – indeed, simply looking up “yards per pass attempt” reveals the Packers average 7 yards every time they throw the ball, which is about league average.

Many fans are quick to point out that Aaron Rodgers seems “off” so far in 2012. Actually, he’s on pace for 4,182 yards, 32 TDs and 13 INTs with a 97.0 QB rating – not a bad statistical season. His averages from 2008-10 were a comparable 4,131 yards, 29 TDs and 10 INTs with a 99.4 QB rating. It’s possible we were spoiled by his otherworldly 2011 campaign… it’s also possible he’s holding onto the ball too long, a criticism made of him early in his career. He’s taking a lot of sacks – on pace for 67 of them, which would be the most in the NFL since 2005.

Sacks need to be included when assessing the overall health of a passing attack – if you can’t protect, and the quarterback has to scramble or give himself up for a sack, what good is passing the ball so much? On many occasions this season, Rodgers finds himself in the pocket, with time, unable to find a suitable target downfield. Green Bay insists on running the play-action bootleg, which is fine, but opposing defenses aren’t biting – nor should they.

Taking the time to establish the running game needs to be high on McCarthy’s priority list. For all the talk of the NFL as a passing league, the top offense in terms of total yards is the New England Patriots, third overall in rushing. The league’s leader in yards per play, the New York Giants, are 12^th in this category. As fate would have it, Green Bay averages 4.34 yards per rush, while the vaunted New England attack gains 4.33 yards per carry. The difference between the two? The Hoodie sticks with the run, and the Packers abandon it for long periods of time. Making this adjustment will be key to the Packers’ success moving forward… speaking of which…

 

The coaching staff needs to make better in-game adjustments.

Of the nine sacks against Seattle, this one looked the most painful.

Truth be told, they’ve been embarrassed in this department. The most exquisite example of this was in the Seahawks game – Seattle pass rushers got to Aaron Rodgers nine- NINE- times in the first thirty minutes. Despite this, Cedric Benson was handed the ball twice in 27 first half plays. The other 25 times, Rodgers dropped back to pass – and better than a third of those times, he was sacked.

Such a playcalling discrepancy would have been understandable (though not excusable) if the Packers were down by 20 points early in the game – but they weren’t. Seattle finally got on the board with 6:22 left in the second quarter, and by this time, much of the damage had been done. McCarthy’s stunning inability to veer from the gameplan hindered the offense’s ability to be effective and put the quarterback in harm’s way. To be fair, McCarthy acknowledged as much – and came out in the second half running the football.

The team seems to take off entire halves of football and lacks the consistency one would expect from a squad full of veteran leaders. Indeed, the team is young, but experience is sprinkled throughout the roster – Woodson, Matthews and Raji on the defense, Rodgers, Saturday and Nelson on the offense. All of those guys have plenty of game reps, and should know what to expect, yet somehow the team still comes out flat – be it in the first half of the Seattle and Chicago games (for the offense) or the second half of the Colts game (for the defense).

Any way you slice it, the Colts’ coaching staff saw something at halftime and made adjustments – McCarthy had a better game plan going in, and the Colts managed themselves better on the fly. Becoming a better in-game strategist is vital to the Packers’ hopes this season – because while the team is talented, they aren’t talented enough to play brain-dead football for 30 minutes at a time and expect to win games.

 

Defensively, the Packers have to play tougher – and with more consistency.

The measurable statistics on the Green Bay defense are as follows: 16^th against the pass, 17^th against the run, 14^th in opponents’ points per game. Pretty mediocre, right? Tied for first in the NFL with 18 sacks… pretty good, right? Only 7 defenses in the NFL have fewer takeaways, and four of them (Oakland, Detroit, Indianapolis and Dallas) have played in one less game due to bye weeks… pretty bad, right?

Such is the story of the 2012 Green Bay defense. At times transcendent and tough, other times porous and soft, it’s a group that gives fans fits. They were manhandled against a physical 49ers team, they beat up and embarrassed the Bears, they shut down the Seahawks and only allowed 7 verifiable* points, they were mediocre against a high-powered Saints team and they were both great (first half) and lousy (second half) against a rookie quarterback last Sunday in Indianapolis.

On a positive note, at least there are flashes of good play from the defense; after last year’s atrocity, any improvement must be noted and expounded upon. Nick Perry seems like he’ll be a decent complementary pass rusher to Clay Matthews, who has been very good. Tramon Williams is healthy again (and performing well) and Sam Shields, who had a very trying 2011 season, has rebounded nicely in 2012.

On the other hand, Charles Woodson is a step slower (and very hands-y, drawing many penalties), the defensive line has been nothing to write home about, and D.J. Smith has been underwhelming trying to fill the shoes of the injured Desmond Bishop.

Defensive coordinator Dom Capers has a proven track record in the NFL, and fans have no choice but to trust that he’ll get the issues ironed out as the season progresses. The star power is there, the pass rush is there – it’s just a matter of generating more takeaways, something they’ve excelled at in the past, to give the offense more opportunities to possess the ball.

In summary…

No matter how mad you get at Marshall Newhouse, Jerry Kramer (64, above) would not be an improvement. After all, he’s 76 years old!

I’m  not one to get wistful for the days of yore – mostly because I am 25 years old and I don’t remember them. I’m not going to suggest the Packers bring back Jerry Kramer to run the power sweep 45 times per game, a la Lombardi. I would, however, venture a guess: the Packers will find a way to get Alex Green, Brandon Saine, and James Starks (once he’s healthy) more involved in the offensive game plan.

Many of Green Bay’s misfortunes in 2012 have to do with poor luck and bad timing. It’s been a trying first third of the season, but there are elixirs for the Packer maladies. Rather than omnipotent, all-powerful deities, the football gods seem to be more fickle, prone to the passion and inconsistency of human beings.

In Greek mythology, humans can make their own luck by making the right choices. While it may seem as though the 2012 Packers are cursed, destined to play tragic figures, there’s still time to turn it around – provided they correct their ways and appease the football gods. Balance, intelligence, toughness – these are the hallmarks of a great team. With some adjustments, this underachieving bunch can become a great team – and continue their remarkable run of success.

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below!

Mario Was a Fire-Breathing Vegan

The Laid-Back Wisdom of Arian Foster

What I’ve learned from a running back’s Twitter feed

@BreakTheHuddle

To play running back in the NFL is to endure car-crash level collisions 20-40 times per week. Even if he carries the ball a mere 15 times, pass-blocking duties and receiving opportunities bring more chances for the runner to receive punishment. The productive lifespan for pro halfbacks is notoriously short; the average one is out of the league in fewer than three seasons. Big contracts come only to the most supremely talented, and even then, they aren’t fully guaranteed. For the sacrifices made to their bodies, their short-term and long-term health, even the best modern-day halfbacks can only expect to make $30 – $40 million in a career – not exactly chump change, to be sure, but hardly a sum reflective of the whupping they endure.

It’s no wonder, then, that many running backs are self-serving egotists, shallow, undeniable narcissists, or naïve, yet supreme, athletes. The position is one of the least cerebral on the field – it doesn’t require the analytical skills of quarterback, the spatial reasoning of receivers, the complex management of a linebacker, or the mental toughness of a defensive back. It is the game’s most basic position: take this ball, run toward the end zone, try to avoid being tackled.

Despite these assuredly oversimplified realities, the most vibrant, intelligent guy in the league is a running back for the 4-0 Houston Texans. His story, as far as his position goes, is not unheard of. Under-utilized and unwanted during his senior year in college, undrafted when he came into the league, his unparalleled skill has made itself manifest ever since the forgettable Steve Slaton went down with an injury during the first week of the 2010 season. Evaluating talent at the running back position is extremely difficult to do, and all 32 teams missed out on Foster, who wound up signing with the Texans as a practice squad hopeful in 2009.

Anyone who participates in fantasy football knows what Arian Foster has morphed into. From those humble beginnings, he’s become a dominant fixture in the league. He’s the boogie man, one of an elite group of players who can single handedly win the week for your opponent: twice in 2011, he posted two 30+ point efforts, and five other times he topped 20 points. In 2010, those numbers were three and six, respectively. Was that confusing? I’ll put it simply – he’s a star. A superstar, beloved by fantasy football players and Texans’ fans everywhere.

Know what else? He doesn’t like fantasy football. He doesn’t like to focus much attention on himself. He’s soft-spoken, and thoughtful. He reads and writes poetry. He’s interested in new age religion. He’s a vegan. He’s the antithesis of many of today’s stars.

You may be wondering how I know all this. I don’t cover the NFL, I’ve never interviewed, met, or been around Arian Foster in any capacity whatsoever. Yet I feel 100% confident that everything I asserted in the previous paragraph is true. How?

Twitter.

Most of the people who read this blog are missing out on the best social media tool available to us. Just about everyone (including my mother) has a Facebook page; conversely, I know approximately four people personally who are active users of Twitter. I try to explain the difference between the two, how Twitter is a million, billion times better, but most people just shrug.

Fact is, Twitter is a tool, and Facebook is an idle pastime. Twitter can be used to learn interesting things about the people you are interested in, but don’t know personally. Facebook exists to learn all the mundane details about the boring people you already know. Twitter is an engine, a massive, evolving social conversation. If you’ve got a voice, if you’ve got something important to say (and you can do it in 140 characters or less), it will be heard.

Here are the things I’ve learned about Arian Foster (from Twitter, of course):

When he gets grief for being a vegan, or when he is asked, “How can a football player be a vegan?”, he has a pretty solid response, featuring a video game character:

He knows exactly how to respond to people who criticize him:

Arian occasionally gets philosophical:

and:

and:

Foster has a grasp on the English language (and a dislike for “grammar nazis”:

His taste in mid-90s television shows is impeccable:

And finally, from time to time, Arian Foster has some important advice he’d like to dispense to you:

Admittedly, there’s a fair number of people who’d consider everything above little more than psychobabble nonsense – but I’d like to take a moment to ask those folks to rethink their position. It’s rare to find self-aware, open, self-deprecating individuals in the world; I’d argue it’s even rarer to see them in the world of sports. Money, fame and success quickly changes people into brands, scared to take a side on issues, afraid to be open with the public. Here, in Arian Foster, we have an example of an elite athlete giving everyone a glimpse into his brain – relatively unfiltered – for free.

In a time where fantasy football ownership clouds the perception we have of athletes, Foster can be a breath of fresh air… if you open yourself to it. Instead of appreciating the personalities and intricacies of the people involved, too many of us look at football players as extensions of ourselves, wrapped up in our successes or failures, output generating machines rather than fellow human beings playing a game. Chuck Klosterman (who is a trillion times the writer I’ll ever be) address all this (a ka-jillion times better than I ever could) in a recent article on Grantland. In it, he says:

“The moment you start looking at the lives of public figures as a hobby is the moment they stop existing as people.”

Allow me to jump off my high horse for a second – I know I’m guilty of what the previous sentence accuses. However, I’m beginning to understand more and more (with the help of Twitter) that some of these guys are sentient, intelligent beings. Even if you disagree with his life philosophy, his veganism (Lord knows, I do), his taste in television – it’s refreshing to know that not every athlete is a dumb jock. A few of them deserve more attention than they get.

And perhaps our appreciation and understanding of the game, and those who play it, would be better served by recognizing that the big people wearing helmets inside our televisions every Sunday are, in fact, people. Arian Foster has quickly become one of my favorite people in the NFL.

 

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below!

*The full explanation for Foster’s disdain for fantasy football can be found here:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/08/28/preseason.week.3/index.html

*Chuck Klosterman’s piece on the dehumanizing aspects of fantasy football can be found here:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8424339/fantasy-football-destroying-our-perceptions-nfl-athletes

Monday Night Catharsis

Purging leftover thoughts from the fiasco in Seattle

@BreakTheHuddle

Reading his lips, it’s clear Yahoo’s Mike Silver asked Rodgers “What the f*** just happened?” seconds after the game was over. None of us are sure, yet, Mike…

The traditional connotation for the word “catharsis” has to do with purification or purgation. To put it in layman’s terms, it is “to blow off some steam.” The mood I am aiming for in this morning’s short post, however, is Aristotle’s original usage of the word: “It is the human soul that is purged of its excessive passions.”

Assuredly, football shouldn’t cause a person to purge his or her soul of its “excessive passions”, and the definition might be overdramatic, but it fits. Packer fans can’t carry the weight of Monday’s officiating clusterf*** around any longer. It’s not as if putting ourselves in the proper mindset will help the team – they, after all, are the ones who really need to forget about it and move on. But for our collective sake, we should let it go.

If you’re anything like me, you went to work on Tuesday in a daze. It was as though I had a hangover (and considering the two stiff drinks I poured myself after the final result, in my case, it may have actually been a hangover). It was difficult to escape reminders of The Play in Question, much like the nauseating whiffs of alcohol the morning after you’ve had too many.

By Thursday, I’d discussed the Fail Mary pass with people whose opinions I care for (my friends, my parents), people whose opinions I don’t care for (my Viking fan in-laws, two of my customers, people on Twitter) and digested countless articles and sports radio segments about the Packer loss. I’ve come to a few conclusions that need to be vented before I lay them to rest.

Okay. Let’s get cathartic up in here.

As the week went on, something weird happened. The few Viking and Bear fans I associate with, as well as local radio hosts, turned from empathetic to aggressive, offering various riffs on the sentiment that “it’s about time the Packers got screwed.” I’ve chosen three quotes, because they spur catharsis, and because they seem to encapsulate much of the backlash to the backlash about Golden-gate.

Quote: “I don’t have a whole lot of sympathy… Just hard to feel too bad for the team that gets to play at Lambeau 8 times or more a year… You guys have the greatest home field advantage in sports, mostly due to officiating.”

Catharsis: The crux of this argument is that the Packers routinely receive preferential treatment from the officials, especially at home. I suppose people consider Green Bay to be the NFL’s darling, and they resent this idea. Fact is, dismay at the officiating during the final Seahawks drive, and the game’s ultimate play, ought to need no qualifiers. It could have happened to any team. The correct response is unmitigated disappointment – period. If you’re a fan of the NFL, if you have money invested in fantasy football, or if you bet on the games themselves, you ought to be angry that such colossal incompetence could influence on-field happenings and cost a team – ANY TEAM – a victory. End. Of. Story.

Quote: ”I’ll be happy when you Packer fans move on. It was a bad call in a week 3 game. They also had one of the most atrocious o-line performances ever. Stop blame-placing and move on.”

Catharsis: While it’s true the Packers’ offensive showing in the first half was despicable, and Mike McCarthy’s stunning inability to adjust his play calling (two called running plays in the face of an incredible four man rush) during the first half was particularly troubling, the problem with this argument is that despite all this, the Packers deserved to win the game anyway. Why? The defense was fantastic. Other than the first Golden Tate touchdown reception, they were air tight all night long. One of the hallmarks of a good team is resiliency, of one unit picking up the other when they’re having an off night, and clearly, the Packers did that.

Quote:

Well, that was uncalled for.

Catharsis: I’m not sure examining these quotes one-by-one will help my standing as a “whiny b****”  in this person’s eyes, but I’ll close with this: It’s okay to be a little shocked and upset when something stupid happens to your favorite football team. The fact that the Packers were already 1-1 and not living up to lofty preseason expectations probably heightened the importance of the game in many fans’ eyes. While it’s true that the regular officials are back, and that even the real ones make bonehead calls, that doesn’t mitigate the reality that the Packers had a win stolen from them due to officials’ incompetence.

Were Packer drives kept alive by questionable calls earlier in the fourth quarter? Absolutely. But the phantom pass interference on Sam Shields, the uncalled offensive pass interference on Golden Tate in the end zone, and the botched communication between officials on the game’s final play… all of it, together, is something we Packer fans had the right to complain about this week.

The real problem with the above quote: it fails to recognize that every other fan base in the country would’ve reacted more or less the same way. There’s nothing unique about Packer fans that made our reaction more or less egregious than, say, a hypothetical Vikings, Bears or Cowboys reaction. To think otherwise is absurd.

Maybe asking for empathy is too much, but it is, after all, just a game. The above quotes go beyond good-natured ribbing – they’re reflective of general attitudes that “a fan of a different team is inherently different than I am.” Which is also absurd. But what’s done is done.

Concerns about the Packers’ playoff prospects, potential tie-breaker scenarios, etc – all of that is too abstract to get worked up over. Green Bay will have plenty of opportunities to atone for this.

I guess I’m burying all of it. When broached with the subject, I’ll defend the notion that the Packers were screwed, but I won’t get animated. I already feel more like a crazed fan (which is what I loathe) than an intelligent, level-headed observer (which is what I aspire to be) just by writing this article… but if you can’t let a little of the “angry fan” out after a loss like that, when can you?

In about five and a half hours, the “Martyr Bowl” (as Yahoo’s Mike Silver cleverly calls it) between the Packers and the Saints begins. And when it does, the road to the day we all look back at this and laugh about it begins to be built.

I look forward to the day we get there.

 

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below!

Hate Watching: Football Advertisements

Breaking down all of your favorite (and least favorite) Sunday commercials.

@BreakTheHuddle

Papa and Peyton, hanging out, saying the word “million” incorrectly (they say mee-yin) and giving away one – no, TWO – meeyin free… Papa John’s pizzas

‘‘Hate-watching provokes feelings of outrage, indignation, contempt or loathing so intense they become pleasurable.’’ – Slate Magazine’s “Culture Glabfest”

“By that logic, I must increase my hatred for games called by Jon Gruden. Because right now, it isn’t pleasurable. If I hate it more, I’ll love it more. Makes sense.” – Yours Truly

12:00 PM – The TV is on, FOX is the channel.

12:01 PM – I wonder how much local advertisers have to pay for the spots immediately before the game starts? You know people are tuning in in massive waves, and that has to be valuable airtime. Why am I seeing ads for Jimbo’s Liquor Store and campaign commercials for city council? Let’s get to the big time!

12:12 PM – There we go, our first Peyton sighting. He’s driving a Buick that lets him audible! How funny! Does Buick expect anyone to believe Peyton drives their vehicles? He’s old, but he’s not that old. Does Papa John ask Peyton at commercial shoots what his favorite pizza is? Come on, people. The man is worth more than $150 million and is a professional athlete. He drives a Mercedes and he eats caviar (and tapenade… but more on that later). It’s time to give up the ghost.

12:38 PM – Geico commercial featuring Gallagher. Damn, we’re off to a good start. The commercial opens with a square pants-looking suburbanite asking the sole proprietor of a farmer’s market about the carbon footprint of his kale. Suddenly, Gallagher zips into the screen and starts smashing the (assuredly eco-friendly) watermelons into bits, spraying everyone. Cut to two guys, one with a mandolin and the other a guitar, who deliver the punch line: “People who switch to Geico are happier than Gallagher at a farmer’s market.” They featured Gallagher, made fun of Just Local-eating nutjobs and used a mandolin. A+, Geico.

12:49 PM – Internet Explorer 9 commercial featuring that catchy-sounding song… It’s the Black Keys, right? Man, they’re good.

1:00 PM – MOVIE TRAILER: “Here Comes the Boom”, starring Kevin James. A fat teacher becomes an MMA fighter to save his school. I wouldn’t expect less from Kevin James. The question is: which Hollywood bombshell will play his love interest? James’ studio must not understand the term”suspension of disbelief”. He’s always ending up with women way out of his league – Rosario Dawson, Winona Ryder, Jayma Mays, Leah Remini AND OH MY GOD it’s Selma Hayek. This is their boldest move yet.

1:07 PM – State Farm – Discount Double Check commercial. Oh, all the times I heard “Discount Double Choke” jokes made after last year’s playoff debacle. Oh, Aaron, make them pull it off the air. I’m your biggest fan. But this commercial’s got to go.

1:21 PM – Dodge Dart – It’s a cool commercial – lots of jump cuts, quick hitting, even a little witty. Though in the words of my friend, Bernard, “That’s pretty cool commercial, but it’s still a s***y car.” Indeed.

1:38 PM – Let’s play a game called “Acid Trip, or TV commercial?” The scene – there’s a freaky looking tree with a face and a lazy eye in a guy’s back yard, and when his friends need tickets to big games, they come over and ask the tree for tickets. He always obliges, because his leaves are actually the tickets, but he does so in clever ways. And the tree has a deep, goofy voice. If you guessed “acid trip” you’d be wrong! That’s a Stub Hub commercial, and whoever pitched it to Stub Hub’s executives trips acid twice a day for “inspiration”. I guarantee it.

1:55 PM – Domino’s CEO Patrick Doyle is asking his delivery drivers for some tips on how to make the perfect pizza delivery vehicle. Oh, this ought to be fun! What will all the geniuses who deliver pizzas for a living have to contribute to this conversation?

– “We need an oven in the back seat,” says the first guy, who has no imagination whatsoever and leads a boring life.

– “You should put in a gyroscopic pizza holder – to keep the pizzas level!” says the attractive, annoying know-it-all young lady who tried really hard to come up with a big word she could use in this commercial.

“Flying delivery car, Mr. Doyle. Now PROMOTE ME!”

– “A flying car with a jet engine,” says the fat guy, pictured to the right, who probably wouldn’t be able to get airborne in a flying car in the first place.

– “Traffic mapping would be good,” says the one reasonable and realistic-looking person featured in this ad… by realistic-looking, I mean he looks like most pizza delivery guys. And by that, I mean – he definitely knows where you could buy some weed.

-“A tank,” says the middle age loner who scares the beJesus out of everyone and plays Modern Warfare every waking second he isn’t delivering pizzas.

Yeah, productive, guys. Well done! The best and brightest Domino’s had to offer really came through, there!

2:13 PM – Internet Explorer 9 – “And it FEELS LIKE I AM JUST TOO CLOSE TO LOOOOVE YOU” wubwubwubwubwubWUBWUBWUBwubwubwub

2:26 PM – Steve Sabol tribute – poignant, simple and beautiful. We see an illuminated stadium with a camera, rolling tape, as it slows and comes to a stop. The lights go out, and we pan to the night sky, one star shining brighter than the rest. The following words appear on the screen: “Your light will shine forever on the game you loved. Steve Sabol, 1942-2012.”

Corny? Maybe. But Sabol is as responsible as anyone for the NFL being as accessible and well-covered as it is today. On a personal note, my first encounters with the game of football were hand-me-down ‘Football Follies’ films, shot and narrated by Sabol himself, in the early 90s. I played them on an endless loop throughout most of my early childhood – the man had a gift for making those gridiron warriors seem human, and for giving the fans a peek behind the scenes of NFL games.

2:48 PM – NFL Sunday Ticket spot – one of their many, but I’d like to highlight this one, as it features tapenade. For those of you who don’t know, tapenade is a dish consisting of puréed or finely chopped olives, capers, anchovies and olive oil. And whoever is involved with their lobby should be damn proud of themselves for getting Peyton Manning to say the word in a commercial which will air approximately 3,001,232,452 more times before the season’s done. Sales will skyrocket… mark my words. I should’ve bought stock in big tapenade companies.

The NFL has made one bad decision after another this season… starting with this guy.

2:59 PM – NFL Fantasy Football commercial, featuring the most hated man in advertising, the blue suit-wearing-hipster-looking guy. I can’t even make jokes about these ads, nor can I stand to watch them closely enough to analyze them. They’re awful. The NFL is making a lot of bad decisions lately.

3:00 PM – The channel has been changed, it’s time for CBS’ turn.

3:16 PM – Coors Light – Ice Cube, his bodyguard “Tank”, a bottle of Coors Light and a pint of the same beer are all standing at a bar… No, it’s not the opening of the lamest joke, ever, it’s a description of the lamest commercial, ever.

3:28 PM – This Honda Accord advertisement is troubling, to say the least. They’ve built in alerts – and openly advertise these – for drivers who doze off, drivers who are inattentive and drivers who don’t have the sense to know when they need to exit the freeway. It’s as if they’re saying, “We know you suck at driving. Let us try to be your crutch!”

3:40 PM – Internet Explorer 9 – “There’s nothing I can REALLY SAAAAAY, YEAH-EEEE-YAAAY…” I wonder which Black Keys album this song is on?

3:59 PM – Discount Double Check, Part Two: The Raji-ing. This State Farm commercial is even more painful than the first. I don’t care if Rodgers and Raji both donated all the money they made off this endorsement to sick and dying children/puppies. The commercial should never have been made.

4:14 PM – iPhone 5 commercial – this one has ear buds that will fit your ears! Well, damn, if you were on the fence about the new iPhones before, this ought to seal the deal.

4:23 PM – A minute long commercial for the iPhone 5’s chief competitor, the Samsung Galaxy S3. They spend a full minute absolutely trashing the new iPhone, making the fans of Apple seem… well, foolish. The best zinger is when they make it seem as though only old people are still in love with Apple products. Nicely done.

Cologne doesn’t go there… BEEP!

4:38 PM – Another great one, this time for the Nissan Altima. It shows a guy beginning to do ill-advised things, then a car horn sounds, signaling him to stop. Throughout the commercial, he is halted in the middle of:

– A prolonged “bro-handshake” with his new boss

– Putting cologne down the front of his pants

– Making a large poker bet

– Going in for a second, tongue-y kiss at the end of a first date

The point of the commercial is that the new Altima’s car horn beeps when the tires are sufficiently full of air. It’s a random feature that should have been available years ago (not unlike the ergonomic ear buds mentioned above) but Nissan’s execution is much better than Apple’s was. Second-best ad of the day.

4:50 PM – Snicker’s commercial with Joe Pesci, featuring the punch line, “What do you model, GLOVES?!?” Brilliant.

5:09 PM – Fellas: downloading NFL Mobile will turn you from this:

“Awesome game last night…”

Into this:

“Saints, best defense in the league…” – said no one in real life, ever.

You’ll still look like a nerd if you looked like a nerd to begin with, but you’ll get cooler clothes and attractive friends. And you’ll run into Clay Matthews in airports, where he’ll threaten to eat you – which seems like it would get the attention of the TSA in a hurry. That could land Clay on the no-fly list. Stop threatening to eat people in airports, Clay! I know the food there is expensive but jeez, you’re a professional athlete…

5:19 PM – MOVIE TRAILER – “Taken 2” starring Liam Neeson. When will he learn to never travel to Eastern Europe? Or, any part of Europe? How does a man and his family endure what they did in the movie “Taken” and not move to the quietest, safest Illinois suburb they can find?

5:30 PM – Wendy’s commercial. It ends with the red-headed girl making her friend drive everyone to Wendy’s. The ad perpetuates the stereotype that all gingers are obnoxious. I’m a fan.

5:46 PM – Internet Explorer 9 commercial – “I can’t lie no more, IIIII can’t HIDE no more, got to be true to mySELF…” that’s it, I’m looking this song up… and it’s not the Black Keys. It’s some guy I never heard of. Whew, glad I didn’t tell anyone I made that mistake.

5:47 PM – Sharp Aquos TV ad – it’s supposed to feature “extreme sports.” The first is a bobsledder, the second is a guy doing parkour, and the third is a dude jumping off a freaking cliff with a parachute! How do those three equate? Sure, people die bobsledding, but Extreme Walking for Bored Potheads (read also: parkour) isn’t on the same level as standing at the top of a cliff and jumping off, hurling your body at a high speed along a cliff face, head first towards the ground.

5:57 PM – Enough commercials for me. It’s time to start paying attention to football. I’m beginning to think that the only reason the sport exists is to sell us stuff: beer, cars, restaurants, other TV shows on the network we happen to be watching, beer, movies, incontinence pills, televisions, hair loss pills, insurance, and beer. But the NFL isn’t about advertising money – it’s about enjoying a beautiful game that is decided fairly, on the field, between highly skilled professionals. If anyone ever lost sight of the competition aspects of the sport, and instead became wrapped up in revenues and sales, the sanctity of the games themselves would be called into question. And then what would we have? Something like the WWE? Probably. Gee, I hope that never, ever happens.

Whoops.

BreakTheHuddle is a fan of the Twins, Timberwolves and the 13-time World Champion Green Bay Packers. Reach him at BreakTheHuddle@gmail.com, @BreakTheHuddle on Twitter or leave a comment below!